UJ Seasonality [1000081419 - Arnaud Kleinveld]

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

BTCUSD responding to the SpaceX launch with a very cautious break-out to the upside and then ruthlessly punished by the bears telling the bulls to wait till Monday

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

Got myself a BTCUSD limit order on BitMEX at 9400 this morning. See if it triggers..

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

BTCUSD has been correlating with the stock markets, which are down this morning, nevertheless with Oil and Gold up I see a fair chance of the intermarket correlations as predicted and stock markets to rally.

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

MQL5 Stats a finally getting somewhere. Always had this thing of being too early with my predictions. Underestimate the power of my competition dearly

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

Long awaited drops on UC finally there, one of the first signals of the triangle crash getting really close. With ECB this thursday we could have a good chance for USD to roll over this week.

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

Going steady on the stats and next I will fix the diversity. Currently holding too much exposure on USD and this need to change to a balance over CAD and JPY instead. Once I have two profitable trades I close them and select one CAD and one JPY pair without USD, e.g. EURCAD and NZDJPY. Selection based on "buy low" at that moment in time.

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

BOC Rate Statement in less than 5 minutes and CAD is devaluing strongly atm which is visible by CADCHF dropping and EURCAD rising. As USD strength is correlating strongly with CAD a good decline of this should become visible as well across most pairs.

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

Strong signals. CAD had some appreciation granted by the BOC rate statement and is now holding USD and JPY from dropping. Once its buying pressure becomes less than USD and JPY selling pressure it likely accelerates into the triangle crash and confirms the opening bell of this season. Trading USDXXX & CADXXX Short or XXXUSD, XXXCAD & XXXJPY Long.

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

That was some fireworks with the ECB rate statement and tringle crash developments fueled to the max, keeping it very hot!

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

Intermarket correlation latest update. See how stock markets are perfectly on the upramp. Negative correlation between DXY and stock markets continues, longer than I have witnessed before..

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

Good CADCHF Short atm

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

There are speculators selling EU.. because they forget to zoom out

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

Happy to see how this diversified portfolio of currency pair held through the NFP and my floating loss turned into a floating profit. Next is to improve this and make it more recession resilient. With more account balance it will also become easier to diversify as we can hold more positions at the same time.

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

AJ is sooo Long

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

Very similar to the AJ chart above. Correlation driven by USD devaluation. AUD and CAD are both also known to strongly correlate as both economies are for a large part driven by commodity exports. This case demonstrates how bot are very likely to break out. AUDUSD to the upside and USDCAD to the downside. Reasons for me to hold on to my AUDUSD Long position.

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

US JOLT job openings exactly as forecast. Yet USD will likely see devaluation from this point onwards as macroeconomic institutional order flow and speculation are starting to synch up and set trend.

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

The triangle on the hourly. Market is agreeing more and more on its destiny. Shorts of USD, CAD and JPY are becoming more steady to trade, also for the shorter time frames. I hold on to my bad selection of positions for a little longer before I choose a better diversified set of pairs. Also, like I said before, I will try to keep my drawdown above zero from this point onwards.

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

BTCUSD again a good indicator telling me the market is not ready and something needs to correlate correctly before the sequence of events can unfold into the many opportunities the start of UJ Seasonality has to offer.

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

FOMC is a good catalyst for underlying macro to continue. Counter traders are quickly hitting boundaries and underlying trend prevails.

 

[Arnaud Kleinveld]

There is a chance that the triangle this time around is composed as USD/JPY/CHF instead of USD/JPY/CAD. SNB may have directed this as they announced two years ago that their currency has been overvalued since it wasn't pegged to the EUR any more. Let's see if this repositions the currency on the price ladder..

I don't think it will work btw because CAD correlates too strong with USD and CHF with EUR so they will move back to their old places.

Triangle crash incoming imho! Sell USD, JPY and CAD. NZD already moving so NC, NJ & NU long could be growing positions imho