UJ Seasonality [1000081419 - Arnaud Kleinveld]

Аналитика брокерской компании АМЕГА
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Arnaud Kleinveld

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Sharp triangle crash continuation this morning. Likely to see steep drop today..
 

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What seemed almost a confirmed break-down on Monday with a lot of news didn't happen still until now. Yet momentum has been solid for the past three days and leading to confirmation if continued. Hold on a little more and patience will be rewarded dearly. :giggle:
Note that this is the hourly time frame..
 

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This could be the start of the detach of CAD and JPY. That would mean we had the longest triangle crash I have ever witnessed. And that now USD devaluation will continue with CAD and JPY oscillating. Finally my UC trade is starting to gain since March..
 

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Oil can make CAD and JPY oscillating with the Wednesday Oil inventories sentiment can change from bullish to bearish or visa versa. Investing.com is reporting a -4.839M inventory against -0.002M forecasted and ForexFactory +5.7M against -3.2M forecasted. Not sure about the different numbers and on top of that ForexFactory reports a red number and Investing.com a green number but what I do have experienced is how the market the next day and this time was remarkable.
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At midnight UTC the announcement was made which was followed by the market with a dive of the triangle in the first 15 minutes. Then strong JPY volatility followed and USD & CAD both steadily appreciated for a good hour after which it returned into slow devaluation while JPY continued to be very volatile until now. Carefully watching my portfolios and during this time of the year it is good to have a CAD/JPY balanced portfolio while avoiding USD for low risk.
 

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Nice BTCUSD entry if you like. I went in too early at the previous low.
 

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Wasn't after all :rolleyes: Better stick to the majors atm..
 

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Here we go again using BTCUSD as a signal checker. Community sentiment seems to agree. I closed GJ and bought NC and a dip of NJ.
 

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USD roll over sentiment seems pretty much confirmed for current last week and upcoming couple of weeks if not months. Which one of the two will become more clear as devaluation sets in. Higher highs are signalling BTCUSD to initially rise but I also see a chance that it will not keep rising for the full USD devaluation period as BTCUSD buying will likely cool down and USD devaluation will have its moments of consolidation when CAD and JPY are changing direction. Each time there is a fair chance for BTCUSD to make that long awaited drop to 888.
 

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Dear Mr Trump, who is manipulating the financial markets you are saying? :censored:
 

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Ola! Vola getting stronger is a sign of wobbly waters ahead. Brace yourself!
Just entered a UJ short on another account.
 
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This looks like the CAD and JPY detach which should make us flip our positions for the bigger short of XXXCAD and XXXJPY that now follows. UJ and UC will now also be included! It may also be an early signal as the crash officially not has started.

Another scenario is that CAD makes a deep drop here. CADCHF and CADJPY will then drop and cause the triangle crash to happen with USD and JPY. The detach of JPY and CAD will then follow later.
 
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I foresee a strong Oil and equities upside rally after roughly the 23rd of July. It will be the rally before the deep crash Big Short II. The upside acceleration of the equities index has been following the sine wave on my chart quite precisely. The 23rd of July is roughly the bottom and reversal up.
 

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Maximum signalling again today, let's see how this turns out. If USD drops then I expect it to do at least performance levels of before COVID-19 and we have not reached that level yet since the start of the pandemic. Tells me about the size of the economic impact and how much longer this recession may take before previous levels of global economic growth, another lost decade is likely what we are looking at here.
 

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Today this chart on the hourly it's clear USD devaluation has taken the lead and CAD and JPY will at any time bundle and all three go for a brief quick drop. Often referred by my as th triangle crash, however officially not a crash I have been told.
 

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Getting closer to August and negative CA reports on retail sales and house prices could ignite an early triangle crash. Still predicting one..
 

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EURUSD monthly finally following its path as it should. USD bulls had it go down the channel for quite a few months I admit. Well done! Now there are new powerful top players on the market and it's time for a new world order ;)
 
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Made a few bad short term trade calls lately imho. Concluded that macro trading is good for swing trading but counter macro trading is better for day trading..
 
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