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UJ Seasonality [1000081419 - Arnaud Kleinveld]

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Arnaud Kleinveld

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This is a journal about an annual recurring event of the US Dollar roll over.

Like every economy, its currency has to cycle. What goes up must come down.

In 2016 I researched a totally random price pattern on CHFJPY major currency pair which lead me to USDJPY and
then discovered something poorly documented going by the name of USDJPY Seasonality.

The journey started with an article on Investopedia about seasonal trends in the Forex Market. From there I expanded
on this subject using an unlimited diversity of information from my experience as IT system architect and electronics engineer.

In my honest opinion the code for success with trading on the Forex market is for each individual unique and a discovery
of how experience, knowledge and personality form a niche within each should aim to excel on the contained subjects.

MQL5 Signal reference https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/709388
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Inter market correlation map of US30 stock market, US Treasury bond yields, DXY, USOil, Gold and Bitcoin. The USD roll over occurs due to a confluence of circumstances which has been showing the same price action patterns for 2017, '18 and '19. Last year was actually skipped by the roll over and is due to take place as I write this piece. For this particular event signals started March '18. Therefor imho I believe it this time is a special edition of the USD roll over and I expect more volatility than ever seen before due to a larger number of circumstances that confluence.
 
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Thank you Amega for the promo code and let's get going.

USD roll over is nicely on track as USD and CAD selling pressure is overtaking JPY buying pressure. the last one to keep the triangle from crashing which is the confirmation for UJ Seasonality's opening bell.
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In the space of the FX market I then expect the opposing 5 major currencies to bloom as soon as the ruling three steadily devalue. Therefor I have opened two trades against the devaluation of CAD as it strongly correlates with USD. Any trade XXXCAD will do at this moment except for UC because USD devalues as well and is queued up likely more sales orders than CAD.
 
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USD & CAD selling pressure soon to overpower JPY buying pressure..

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The drop will confirm the start of the UJ Seasonality season. Risk is on I believe. Gold is a good buy and so are CHF, EUR, GBP, AUD & NZD imho

JPY and CAD are also a good buy as soon they detach from the devaluing USD, till then I expect a steep sell. Traditionally this is the same or next day if I remember well so stay tuned.

More info on this subject at the related ideas referenced on my TradingView profile if you are interested.

Make up your pairs!
 

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Monday's are always hard to predict and prone to price manipulations as volumes are low. Hence I do not value the market response much until Tuesday London open. Nevertheless are London & NY open today of somewhat more importance than any other Monday because of the awaited USD roll over. Watching it close and I'll report back here,
 

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Good morning. Beautiful day at the market today. Support the world economy and buy AUDJPY :)
 

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London open and as expected the markets move with institutional order flow. I closed GBPCAD and GBPJPY and selected a less safe pair as volumes and direction is more trustworthy on Tuesday at London open.
 

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USDCAD price rallied to 1.37 on Tuesday, signaling an important level for possible reversal and start of UJ Seasonality as AUD and GBP are being tested at a low by the USD bulls. All together a perfect recipe for the roll over of the almighty king.
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UJ Seasonality identifies itself with a significant drop on UJ as the season starts. Due to a confluence of circumstances USD is caused to roll over. For that to happen two other currencies CAD and JPY will drop a little as well. The drop of the three together I refer to as Triangle crash and confirms the opening bell of the season.
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USD devaluation has not really set in yet as the triangle crash has not been confirmed. Every day it becomes more clear what exact confluence of circumstances is causing the USD to roll over.
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This year we have a special occasion of confluence of circumstances and because the traditional USD roll over sequence of circumstances has not yet been completed I foresee another stock market bubble, bigger than Black Monday 2020.
 

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Got my margin in use with two wrongly timed trades. They will become profitable with almost 100% certainty so I have decided not to close them. There is no rush and patience is a virtue. See the details on my mql5 report at https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/709388

In case you have some margin available then CADJPY short is a good trade.
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Looks like a classic UC Classic Cup & Handle to me with EURCAD and GBPCAD at lower levels and CADCHF and CADJPY residing at higher levels, this C&H pattern could very well confirm its continuation of the already set uptrend.

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However, in the exceptional case that USD devalues at the same time and at the same pace or faster, UC would drop from where that happens, possibly drawing the same structure as it did January 2016, swing up to 1.47 and then down to 1.24
 

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Now that the reversal structure has drawn a head and shoulder pattern we can confirm the down move below the neckline.
1584689196135.png
 

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USDJPY vs USDCAD vs CADJPY the triangle of USD, CAD & JPY. The leaders of the FX market, except when USD devalues..
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I call it an inevitable singular confluence of circumstances. Stocks are up as predicted..
 

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Getting ready. Unfortunately my positions not yet in the money. I wait a little longer.
 

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USD ongoing devaluation. Perceived strength obtained through piggybacking. The currency has been a walking dead since QE started.
If not before...
 

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Good UJ Seasonality opening bell signals again. Stay tuned..

Again I wish I had not used all my margin so early. FOMO I guess. Now would be a really good time to go long on EURCAD for example

😎
 
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