UJ Seasonality [1000081419 - Arnaud Kleinveld]

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Arnaud Kleinveld

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EUR performance has been quite steady the past few weeks and became a low risk choice regardless positive US economic data. Two more weeks to fille up that candle all the way up to the upper boundary of that channel.
 

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Expecting AJ same angle retracement after the USD pump two hours ago, catching up with the underlying trend of UJ Seasonality.
 

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The main reason why I strongly disencourage the use of DXY. This parabolic upside would give the impression USD is in demand which has specifically been crafted by the USD bulls.
57.5% EUR and by collaborative targeting EU with shorts USD bulls achieve to make DXY to look like the currency is in demand and create therefor more demand, also referred to as manifestation.
 

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Notice the pullback on the US stock market, which it really just is imho. In other words I think we are looking at a huge stock rally which would be a perfect preamble for Big Short II. From the correlation between DXY and the stock market, the chart below, I conclude that from today onwards we are facing another lengthy period of negative correlation and that this period of USD devaluation may stretch further down than I expected. Forcing me to move the big red arrow for Big Short II one more cycle again. Let's see what we are going to experience in the coming four to six weeks first because the stock market cycle doesn't sync up for a huge rally for this period..
 

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The triangle of USD, CAD & JPY is showing signs of weakness stronger than before. This together with the readiness of the inter market state of correlation adds up again to the most likely to happen signal ever. Get your big gulp and popcorn, the show may start today..
 

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BTCUSD possibly signalling further USD devaluation tomorrow. We had a pretty USD bullish close on Friday which was manifested by USD bulls as self opportunity and for the possible collecting of enough followers to drive continuation imho.
 

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I recognise this stage of the market where CAD and USD are starting to crash and JPY is still holding both from perusing this but JPY buying pressure will be overpowered by CAD and USD selling pressure and then the three crash, as mentioned before, which I call the triangle crash which is the key indicator for the start of the USD devaluation period when USD rolls over, which I refer to as the UJ Seasonality opening bell.

UJ draws a very nice 100 pip drop from this of which I take profit and open GJ Long as replacement.
 
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My BTCUSD indicator drawing a higher low after yesterday's drop signals me the market is ready

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Now this inter-market correlation chart is getting very interesting. The sequence is repeated exactly as in the three years before. Obviously we did not have COVID but nevertheless from the timing of decennial, centennial and possible even longer visible cycles I concluded throughout these past years that we are facing some economic turmoil on world scale, just like many other analyst have predicted current recession. COVID has been an unexpected large catalyst on this process and has caused the negative correlation between DXY and the stock market (DJI) to last much longer than I have witnessed before. This and many other online sources increase the likelihood of a continuation of current recession, we just have to wait to say what will cause this to happen.
 

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Despite the many signals it surprises me how long it still takes before EUR, GBP & CHF are taking over the market as they traditionally do when USD rolls over. Can this be a mark in time where there will perhaps be no return for the King? At closer inspection I noticed JPY has strengthen from the start of this month and is now once again bending down under the increasing selling pressure of USD and CAD. Oil often drives the power swap between JPY and CAD as the first is net importer of the commodity and the latter net exporter. Let's watch it closely!
 
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Still expecting this one last strong stock market rally before Big Short II..
So we are in a pullback imho (in my honest opinion)
 

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Waiting for this Oil reversal ?
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Because CAD & JPY are going berserk on the minute tf
 

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I believe that Oil is and keep being a good buy until next year. We will likely work around COVID wave 2 and keep flying and driving nevertheless. Other parts of the world economy not affected by COVID or may even benefit from the pandemic, think of contactless payments in the fin-tech industry and remote works tools such as video conferencing, laptops with camera and virtual office providers etc etc.

Stock market overvaluation and currency devaluation due to excessive printing will like cause hyperinflation and rocket commodity prices into unknown territory. In this chart I attempt to guess where it may be heading using technicals, which often works out correctly. See my interactive chart of this prediction on TradingView and press the play button to see how it already followed this technical analysis prediction.
 
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USD, CAD & JPY aiming for a downtrend continuation. Any GBP, EUR, CHF, AUD or NZD against USD, CAD & JPY should provide a profitable position. E.G. GBPUSD, EURCAD, AUDCAD & NZDUSD Long or USDCHF, CADCHF short. Within the triangle of USD, CAD & JPY USDCAD, USDJPY and USDCHF Short. CADJPY Short at first and long later while USD is still devaluing. ?
 

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USD hit at Q2 closing, however not as bad as I had predicted..
 

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Good chance we confirm the roll over today..
Check my message #133 above for solid opportunities.
 

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This is not going to be your average NFP market frenzy..
 

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Going to close my AU trade here and open AJ with hopefully more volatility. This will cause a little drawdown but should be reasonably fast cleared by the trade itself.
 

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Triangle of USD, CAD & JPY ready
AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR & CHF repositioning
 

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Source: ForexFactory
Europe and China are looking good today while USA is having a bank holiday. Good time to let USD roll over (y)
 

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Friday's high volume pairs sorted by volume top down. Symbol volumes selected from Oanda's exchange.
 
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